居然可以这样lobbying(lobbying firms)

The protection of civilians from human rights violations has increasingl

 

期刊简介

《和平研究杂志》（Journal of Peace Research）是一份跨学科的、国际同行评议的和平研究学术双月刊《和平研究杂志》致力于在全球范围内关注冲突与缔造和平该刊鼓励广泛的和平概念，但重点关注暴力的起因和冲突的解决。

该刊2022年影响因子为3.713，近5年影响因子为4.555本期目录1离开政治舞台了么？——异议与领导人退出的多样性Going, going, gone? Varieties of dissent and leader exit

2民族认同、战斗意愿和集体行动National identity, willingness to fight, and collective action3不可思议的证据：核门槛上的实验性兵棋推演Evidence of the unthinkable: Experimental wargaming at the nuclear threshold

4有针对性/不加区分——基于网络的国家暴力理论A theory of targeted and indiscriminate state violence in networks5拆解概念：审视妇女地位与恐怖主义之联系

Unpacking the concepts: Examining the link between women’s status and terrorism6描述性表征和冲突消解：来自印度毛派叛乱的证据

Descriptive representation and conflict reduction: Evidence from India’s Maoist rebellion7国际边界如何影响冲突进程？巴勒斯坦委任统治结束时期的证据

How do international borders affect conflict processes? Evidence from the end of Mandate Palestine8外国宣传活动如何影响美国关于该国内战的公开声明

How foreign information campaigns shape US public pronouncements about civil wars9性暴力、性别保护和对干预的支持Sexual violence, gendered protection and support for intervention

文章摘要离开政治舞台了么？——异议与领导人退出的多样性题目：Going, going, gone? Varieties of dissent and leader exit作者：Kristian Skrede Gleditsch，埃塞克斯大学政府系政治科学皇家教授；Roman-Gabriel Olar，都柏林城市大学法律与政府学院助理教授；Marius Radean，埃塞克斯大学政府系助理教授。

摘要：本文研究了公众异议如何影响政治领导人失去权力，并根据非暴力/暴力的主要策略以及个人参与的水平区分异议类型本文认为，抗议活动既通过公民不服从之下的治理成本直接威胁到领导人，也通过执政联盟中精英叛逃的风险间接威胁到领导人。

在一系列的命题中，本文详细说明了异议的类型和参与的程度如何影响领导人留任的几率，并指出，大规模非暴力挑战往往比暴力异议对领导人统治的威胁更大此外，异议活动的规模增加了挑战的有效性，能够动员更多人的运动在非暴力策略方面具有相对优势。

本文使用了政治领导人任期和持不同政见者竞选特征的相关数据，并提供了与文章假设相一致的证据We examine how popular dissent affects the likelihood that political leaders lose power, distinguishing between types of dissent in terms of nonviolent/violent primary tactics as well as the level of individual participation. We posit that protests threaten leaders both directly through the governance costs of citizen non-compliance, and indirectly through the increased risk of elite defections in the ruling coalition. In a series of propositions we detail how the type of dissent and the magnitude of participation influence the odds of leaders surviving in office. We argue that mass nonviolent challenges tend to be more threatening to a leader’s rule than violent dissent, given the characteristics of movements likely to choose nonviolent tactics. Moreover, the effectiveness of the challenge increases in the scale and size of the dissident campaign, and movements that can mobilize larger numbers have a comparative advantage in nonviolent tactics. Employing data on political leaders’ tenure and dissident campaign characteristics, we provide evidence consistent with our expectations.

民族认同、战斗意愿和集体行动题目：National identity, willingness to fight, and collective action作者：Austin Horng-En Wang，内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校政治学助理教授；Nadia Eldemerdash，内华达大学拉斯维加斯分校政治学专业博士生。

摘要：为什么人们要冒着生命危险参加战争？本文超越了群体不满和物质利益解释途径，发展了另一种解释人们为什么选择战斗或不战斗的心理机制——集体行动感知当一个人意识到其他人也会参与战斗时，他更有可能加入其中与社会认同理论和社会压力理论的预期相反，在民族认同较弱的人群中，集体行动感知的影响更强，因为他们更有可能通过考虑他人的决定来理性地计算获胜的机会。

为了减轻冲突后横断面调查的内生性，本文进行了一项调查实验(n = 1,001)，以操作人们对潜在的大陆-台湾军事冲突中战斗意愿的感知实验证据支持以下假设，即集体行动感知只对弱台湾身份认同者有效本文的结果在稳健性检验和另一项具有全国代表性的调查中成立。

Why do people risk their lives fighting in wars? This article looks beyond group grievance and material benefits to add another psychological mechanism explaining why people choose to fight or not to fight – perceived collective action. An individual is much more likely to fight when they perceive that others will also fight. Contrary to the expectations of social identity theory and social pressure theory, the effect of perceived collective action is stronger among those who have a weaker national identity because they are more likely to rationally calculate the chance of winning by accounting for others’ decisions. To mitigate the endogeneity in post-conflict cross-sectional surveys, we conduct a survey experiment (n = 1,001) in Taiwan manipulating perceptions of others’ willingness to fight in a potential China–Taiwan military conflict. Experimental evidence supports the hypotheses that perceived collective action works only on weak Taiwanese identifiers. The result holds in robustness checks and in another nationally representative survey.

不可思议的证据：核门槛上的实验性兵棋推演题目：Evidence of the unthinkable: Experimental wargaming at the nuclear threshold作者：

Andrew W Reddie，加州大学伯克利分校公共政策副教授；Bethany L Goldblum，加州大学伯克利分校核工程系副教授摘要：俄罗斯、中国和美国正在进行的核现代化项目重新引发了学者们长期以来的争论，即“量身定制”的核武器是否可能对国际安全产生不稳定的后果。

然而，由于没有数据来评判这场辩论，这些讨论完全停留在理论层面本文介绍了一个实验性兵棋推演平台SIGNAL，以量化在模拟环境中定制核能力对核门槛的影响本文还将这些结果与一项调查实验进行比较，该实验使用了与军事基地、网络作战和军演环境中的核威胁相关的场景。

虽然调查实验表明，定制核能力的存在增加了冲突升级的可能性，但这种趋势在兵棋推演背景下减弱了在这两个数据生成过程中，本文发现使用低当量核武器替代高当量核武器这一主张得到了支持这些结果对近期的有关战略态势和军备控制未来的政策辩论产生了影响。

这项工作也为社会科学研究中实验兵棋推演的设计和应用做出了方法论上的贡献，特别是在观测数据有限或不存在的情况下的操作化Ongoing nuclear modernization programs in Russia, China, and the USA have reopened longstanding debates among scholars concerning whether tailored nuclear weapons are likely to have destabilizing consequences for international security. Without data to adjudicate this debate, however, these discussions have remained entirely theoretical. In this article, we introduce an experimental wargaming platform, SIGNAL, to quantify the effect of tailored nuclear capabilities on the nuclear threshold in a simulated environment. We then compare these results with a survey experiment using scenarios related to military basing, cyber operations, and nuclear threats from the wargame environment. While the survey experiments suggest that the presence of tailored nuclear capabilities increases the likelihood of conflict escalation, this trend diminishes in the wargaming context. Across both data-generating processes, we find support for the proposition that lower-yield nuclear weapons are used as a substitute for their higher-yield counterparts. These results have consequences for recent and ongoing policy debates concerning strategic posture and the future of arms control. This work also makes methodological contributions to the design and application of experimental wargaming for social science research, particularly for scenarios where data are limited or non-existent.

有针对性/不加区分——基于网络的国家暴力理论题目：A theory of targeted and indiscriminate state violence in networks作者：Daniel R Thomas，斯特拉斯克莱德大学计算机与信息科学专业助理教授。

摘要：解释国家为何选择对平民使用有针对性的或不加区分的暴力的理论通常考量国家获取信息的能力，以及其造成足够破坏以防止叛逃的能力与这些理论相反，本文表明策略的选择取决于经受暴力的社区的特征，而不是使用暴力的国家。

本文认为，即使国家可以只针对某些平民，鉴于平民社会网络结构的特点，他们也可能选择使用不加区分的暴力策略国家的最佳暴力策略是由两个因素驱动的：平民社交网络的分布以及公民离开网络的动机与公民对网络中其他节点的价值之间的相关性。

当程度分布均匀，动机和价值呈正相关时，不分青红皂白的暴力往往更受欢迎Theories explaining why states choose to use targeted or indiscriminate violence against civilians hinge on the state’s capacity to gain information about who to target and its ability to do enough damage to prevent defection to the rebel’s side. In contrast to these theories, I show that the choice of strategy depends on the characteristics of the community experiencing the violence, not the state employing it. This article argues that even when states can target certain civilians, they may choose to employ indiscriminate violence owing to the characteristics of the civilians’ social network structure. The state’s optimal strategy of violence is driven by two factors: the degree distribution of civilians’ social networks and the correlation between citizens’ motivation to leave a network and citizens’ value to other nodes in the network. When the degree distribution is uniform, and motivation and value are positively correlated, indiscriminate violence is more often preferred.

拆解概念：审视妇女地位与恐怖主义之联系题目：Unpacking the concepts: Examining the link between women’s status and terrorism

作者：Kyle Kattelman，美国费尔利·迪金森大学政治学副教授；Courtney Burns，美国巴克内尔大学政治科学助理教授摘要：本文使用三种新方法研究妇女地位的变化如何影响恐怖主义的强度首先，本文更直接地将恐怖主义意识形态与女性地位联系起来，使用女权主义文学中很少直接应用于政治暴力的话题：厌女。

其次，本文将恐怖主义意识形态分为四种类型（种族民族主义、宗教、右翼和左翼），认为前三种具有强烈的男性气质和父权制主旨，从而提供了与厌女的更明确的联系，即意识形态走到极端时会提炼为厌女最后，过往性别平等研究的努力经常受到不精确的理论和概念延伸的影响，本文回避了这一方面，而是关注妇女的地位，并采取了一系列新的措施，将妇女地位的理解从基于权利的方法论扩大到包括妇女安全、包容性和法律权利的方法。

为此，本文将634个恐怖组织分开，以确定具体妇女地位指标的水平是否会影响特定恐怖主义意识形态的暴力频率本文对1970年至2014年的185个国家进行了抽样测试，发现女性安全感的增加引发了种族民族主义和宗教团体的暴力意识形态，而妇女合法权利的增加则引发了右翼团体的暴力倾向。

In this article, we examine how changes in the status of women affect the intensity of terrorism by using three novel approaches. First, we link terrorist ideology more directly to women’s status using a well-tread topic in feminist literature that is rarely applied to political violence: misogyny. Second, we provide more explicit linkages to misogyny by disaggregating terrorist ideology into four typologies (ethnonationalist, religious, right-wing, and left-wing), arguing that the first three have strong themes of masculinity and patriarchy; ideologies when taken to their extremes distill into misogyny. Finally, previous efforts to study gender equality frequently suffer from imprecise theory and concept stretching. We sidestep this issue by instead focusing on women’s status and employ a new series of measures that broaden our understanding of women’s status from a rights-based approach to one that includes women’s security, inclusion, and legal rights. We do this by disaggregating 634 terrorist organizations to determine whether the level of specific women’s status indicators affects the frequency of violence from specific terrorist ideologies. We test this on a sample of 185 countries from 1970 to 2014 and find that increases in women’s security provoke violence from ethnonationalist and religious groups while increases in women’s legal rights incite violence from right-wing groups.

描述性表征和冲突消解：来自印度毛派叛乱的证据题目：Descriptive representation and conflict reduction: Evidence from India’s Maoist rebellion

作者：Aidan Milliff，佛罗里达州立大学政治学助理教授；Drew Stommes，耶鲁大学政治学博士摘要：把历史上处于不利地位的群体更广泛地纳入民主制度，能减少暴力反叛行为吗？民主建设是反叛乱和冲突后国家的常用工具，然而现有的学术研究在衡量民主改革的独立影响方面往往面临障碍。

本文评估了地方议会中预定部落的配额是否减少了恰蒂斯加尔邦（Chhattisgarh）的反叛暴力，恰蒂斯加尔邦是印度毛派叛乱活动高度密集的一个邦地方议会配额并不是作为一种镇压叛乱的技术而产生的，而是为了解决印度在册部落长期以来的政治边缘化问题。

本文采用地理回归不连续设计来研究恰蒂斯加尔邦实施配额的战时影响，发现政治席位的预订减少了该邦的毛派暴力对机制的探索性分析表明，通过拉近地方民选官员与国家安全部队的距离，可以减少暴力，并为反叛乱分子提供有价值的信息。

本文的研究表明，制度工程，如创造更具包容性的代议制民主的改革，可以影响内战中信息共享的政治经济学，并最终塑造暴力叛乱的轨迹Can greater inclusion in democracy for historically disadvantaged groups reduce rebel violence? Democracy-building is a common tool in counterinsurgencies and post-conflict states, yet existing scholarship has faced obstacles in measuring the independent effect of democratic reforms. We evaluate whether quotas for Scheduled Tribes in local councils reduced rebel violence in Chhattisgarh, an Indian state featuring high-intensity Maoist insurgent activity. These quotas did not originate as a counterinsurgency technique, but instead as an effort to address the longstanding political marginalization of India’s Scheduled Tribes. We employ a geographic regression discontinuity design to study the wartime effects of quotas implemented in Chhattisgarh, finding that reservations reduced Maoist violence in the state. Exploratory analyses of mechanisms suggest that reservations reduced violence by bringing local elected officials closer to state security forces, providing a windfall of valuable information to counterinsurgents. Our study shows that institutional engineering, like reforms to create more inclusive representative democracy, can shape the trajectory of insurgent violence. Institutional engineering creating more inclusive representative democracy during an ongoing conflict can affect the political economy of information sharing in civil war and, ultimately, affect the trajectory of insurgent violence.

国际边界如何影响冲突进程？巴勒斯坦委任统治结束时期的证据题目：How do international borders affect conflict processes? Evidence from the end of Mandate Palestine

作者：Richard J McAlexander，宾夕法尼亚大学博士后研究员摘要：反叛分子可以在冲突期间通过不侵犯国际边界来显示遵守国际法，但战略目标也可能会激励反叛分子侵犯这些边界国际边界何时影响冲突环境中反叛活动的空间和时间分布？本文推测反叛分子有动机不侵犯边界，因为这样做会降低他们的国际合法性。

当国际合法性不那么重要时，反叛分子将更有可能侵犯边界本文在1948年巴勒斯坦托管战争的背景下，通过利用1947年联合国分治线如何划定的准自然实验来检验这一说法本文利用来自英国殖民文件的1000多个巴勒斯坦村庄的原始数据集和巴勒斯坦航空照片地图集，并运用地理回归不连续性设计来观察联合国分区线如何影响战争期间人口减少的村庄的位置和时间。

最终结果表明，作为1947年分治计划的一部分，联合国分配给未来以色列国家的地区的村庄更有可能在以色列获得承认之前被征服这些发现对于了解反叛者挑选目标的时间和地点具有重要意义，并为1948年巴勒斯坦战争的重要动态提供了新的启示。

Rebels can comply with international law during a conflict by not violating international borders, yet strategic goals may incentivize rebels to violate these borders. When do international borders affect the spatial and temporal distribution of rebel activity in a conflict setting? I theorize rebels have an incentive to refrain from violating borders when doing so will reduce their international legitimacy. When international legitimacy is a less important goal, rebels will be more likely to violate borders. I test this claim in the context of the 1948 War in Mandate Palestine by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in how the 1947 UN partition line was drawn. Using an original dataset on over 1,000 Palestinian villages from British colonial documents and an atlas of aerial photographs of Palestine, I use a geographic regression discontinuity design to see how the UN partition line affected the location and timing of depopulated villages during the war. The results show that villages in areas that the UN assigned to the future Israeli state as part of the 1947 partition plan were more likely to be conquered before Israel received recognition. These findings have important implications for understanding where and when rebels target areas and shed new light on important dynamics of the 1948 War in Palestine.

外国宣传活动如何影响美国关于该国内战的公开声明题目：How foreign information campaigns shape US public pronouncements about civil wars

作者：Benjamin T Jones，密西西比大学政治科学系助理教授；Eleonora Mattiacci，安默斯特学院政治科学系助理教授摘要：卷入内战的政府往往试图塑造外国对冲突和政府在冲突中的作用的看法。

例如，自冷战结束以来，许多政府一直在美国开展公共外交活动（PDC）具体来说，这些政府聘请了美国公关和游说公司来展示他们自己及其在冲突中的作用，并进行一系列有利叙事通过PDC，政府试图塑造美国对该政府和冲突本身的公开声明。

PDC是实现这一目标的有效工具吗？本文认为PDC的效果是不同的PDC能够同时动员该政府的支持者和反对者，同时增加了美国官员对内战政府正面的和负面的公开声明本文汇编了自冷战结束以来美国PDC的数据，这一研究结果对外交政策中的外国影响、战斗人员的道德风险以及有关战斗人员行为的国际规范的研究具有重要意义。

此外，为了衡量外国行为者对国内内战叙事的影响，本文指出，必须考虑外国行为体如何通过动员国内派别间接影响围绕冲突的讨论Governments involved in civil wars often seek to shape foreign perceptions of the conflict and of the government’s role in the conflict. To this end, for example, many such governments have engaged in public diplomacy campaigns (PDCs) in the United States since the end of the Cold War. Specifically, these governments have hired US public relations (PR) and lobbying firms to present favorable narratives of themselves and their role in the conflict. Through PDCs, governments seek to shape US public pronouncements about the governments and the conflict itself. Are PDCs effective tools to reach this goal? We argue that the effect of PDCs is divergent. PDCs help mobilize both supporters and opponents of the sponsoring governments. In so doing, PDCs increase both positive and negative public statements from US officials toward the civil war government. We compile data on PDCs in the United States since the end of the Cold War. Our results have implications for research on foreign influence in foreign policy, combatants’ moral hazard, and international norms about combatant behavior. Moreover, in order to gauge the influence of foreign actors on domestic narratives of civil wars, it is crucial to consider how such foreign actors can indirectly shape the discourse around conflict by mobilizing domestic factions.

性暴力、性别保护和对干预的支持题目：Sexual violence, gendered protection and support for intervention作者：Mattias Agerberg，哥德堡大学助理教授；Anne-Kathrin Kreft，奥斯陆大学政治科学系博士后研究员。

摘要：保护平民人权不受侵犯日益成为全球优先事项1990年代波斯尼亚和卢旺达的战争以及妇女、和平与安全框架的发展，已将与冲突有关的性暴力（CRSV）列入全球保护议程先前的研究发现，事实上，当有关于普遍性暴力的报告发行时，无论冲突的总体强度如何，国际社会都更有可能关注和干预冲突。

本文对这些模式的微观基础进行了理论化和实证研究本文假设，与其他类型的冲突暴力相比，个人更有可能支持对性暴力盛行的武装冲突进行军事干预这是基于仁慈的性别保护规范（即妇女和儿童同属于无辜、依赖和受保护地位）的结果，这种规范在西方社会也继续受到关注。

在美国、英国和瑞典进行的等效调查实验中，本文发现，在性暴力泛滥的冲突中，对国际干预的支持最高美国和英国的保护责任观念和谁被视为受害者的性别观念促成了这种影响美国的一项后续实验进一步证明了性别保护规范的激活是推动这一结果的核心机制。

The protection of civilians from human rights violations has increasingly become a global priority. The wars in Bosnia and Rwanda in the 1990s, and the development of the Women, Peace and Security framework have placed conflict-related sexual violence on the global protection agenda. Prior research has found that international attention to, and intervention in, conflicts is in fact more likely when there are reports of widespread sexual violence, regardless of overall conflict intensity. This article theorizes and empirically examines the micro-level underpinnings of these patterns. We hypothesize that individuals are more likely to support military intervention in conflicts with prevalent sexual violence as opposed to other types of conflict violence. The reason lies in gendered protection norms, based in benevolent sexism, that continue to have traction also in Western societies. In equivalent survey experiments carried out in the United States, the United Kingdom and Sweden, we find that support for international intervention is highest in sexual violence conflicts. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the responsibility to protect and gendered perceptions of victimhood mediate this effect. A follow-up experiment in the United States provides further evidence of a gendered protection norm as a core mechanism driving our results.

编译 | 杨佳霖审校 | 崔育涞排版 | 张心妍本文来源于《和平研究杂志》。内容为公益分享，服务于科研教学，不代表本平台观点。