rehab(rehab schedules)速看

Based on a true story.It ain't what you don't know that gets you

 

Based on a true story.It aint what you dont know that gets you into trouble,Its what you know for sure that just aint so.

让我们陷入困境的不是无知，而是自己笃信的谬判——MarkTwain马克·吐温[开场]“Hiya Frank.How are the wife and kids?smoke?”家里怎么样？要来根烟吗？In the late 70s,banking wasnt a job you were into to make large sums of money.It was a fucking snooze.

20世纪70年代末，美国银行业根本就赚不了大钱只不过是无聊的差事“How about those Mets?”你怎么看纽约大都会队？Filled with losers,like selling insurance or accounting.。

到处都是傻逼，卖保险的，或者会计师...You might not know who he is,but he changed your life more than Michael Jordan,the iPod,YuTube put together.

你可能不知道路易斯，但他对你的影响可能比乔丹、iPod和YuTube加起来还大“Alright ,gentlemen,lets get some money in here!lets make some money,what do you say?”。

好了先生们，我们来赚钱吧让我们来赚钱吧好不好？You see,Lewis didnt know it yet,but he had already changed banking forever with one simple idea.。

路易斯自己也没想到，他的一个主意会改变整个银行业The mondy came raining down.And for the first time ,the banker went from the counry club to the stirp club.。

他们简直赚翻了也就从那时开始，银行家从去私人会所晋级到去脱衣酒吧And America barely noticed noticed as it number one industry became boring old banking.。

不知不觉间，老旧古板的银行业一跃成为美国最大产业And then one day,almost 30 years later,in 2008,it all came crashing down.然而30年后，也就是2008年，美国经济全面崩盘。

its been called the worst financial ciris in modern times.Certainly the largest financial disater in the decades in this country.And perhaps the end of an era in Ameriacn business.

这堪称现代社会最严重的一次金融危机，美国数十年最大的金融灾难大概也是美国其中一个时代的终结But there were someone who saw it coming.While the whole word was having a big old party,few ousiders and weirdos saw what no one else cloud.。

但就在世人皆醉的时候，一些旁观者和鬼才反而提前看到了末日Not me,im not a weirdo, im pretty fucking cool.but well meet again later.。

别看着我，我不是鬼才，我只是很帅而已不过一会儿见These outsider saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy.And they saw it by doing something the rest of sucker never thought to do.They looked.。

这些旁观者拆穿了经济大佬招摇撞骗的骗局，因为他们那时正巧在做一些其他窝囊废想都不干想的事情。他们专心研究。

[迈克尔出场]During the 1930s,the housing market collapased nationwide，by roughly 80%.I mean there were specifi identifiers,extremly recognizable.

20世纪30年代，全美房市爆跌，跌了大约八成但是，这个事先是有预兆的，而且谁都看得出来I‘ve always been more comfortable alone.I believe maybe it is because of my glass eye.I lost the eye in a childhood illness,it seperates me from people.。

我总觉得独处的时候更自在，大概这是因为假眼的缘故小时候得了场病，然后我失去一只眼睛"lets wash it off and put it again.you were playing so great ,son.I even heard the coach say it."。

让我们把它洗干净再放回去你刚刚表现得真好！我听到教练也这么说"Can we just go home?"我想回家Most social interaction are awkward for me and for the person.Even when i tried to compliment someone,it comes out wrong.。

我的社交总以尴尬收场，就算我打算去称赞别人，也总是会搞砸“You have a very nice haircut,did you do it yourself?"你这个发型很酷，你自己剪的吗？I’m sorry,im just...i am going on and on,my wife told me i need to share more.。

对不起，我...唉，我总是说个不停，我老婆叫我多跟别人沟通“That seems healthy."挺好的“So do i get the job?i really think i can help you fund."。

那..我被录用了吗？我觉得自己能够胜任帮你管理基金“Is there anything you want me to work on for start...you can let me know latter ,i can come back."。

如果你需要我现在先做点什么的话，你可以待会叫我，我过来[马克出场]"I’m a nice guy all day long.ask anyone,im a pleasure to work with.But the second my son screws up,i am yelling at him just like my dad did to me."。

我是个很随和的人不信你去问，大家都愿意跟我共事但是每次当我的儿子搞砸事情的时候，我就会对他大吼，跟我爹以前对我一样Sorry im late,no cabs.so get this,i met this retail banker yesterday,im supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund,but instead,i start grilling him about overdraft penalties .And this creep is making billions off screwing over people this way.And im getting madder and madder,and i asked him,l looked into his face and i say,"How can you sleep at night,knowing that you are ripping off working people?"And you know what he did?he left.He just walked out of the lunch,doesnt say a word.What the fuck is that?。

对不起我又迟到了，打不到车昨天我遇见一个零售银行家，我本来是想说服他投资基金的，结果我开始质问他银行透支账户的问题这吊毛就用这种方式榨了几十亿我当时看着他的眼睛问他：“知道自己在剥削劳动人民，你他妈每天晚上怎么睡得早？”然后你知道他怎么样了？他直接就走了。

午饭也没吃，半句话都没说什么态度嘛？“We have talked about this numerous times,you cant come in late and hijack the entire session.Mark,i know you suffered a terrible loss,maybe you want to talk about that."

说了几百遍了，你不能这么晚到还打断整个会议马克，我知道你失去了最重要的亲人，不如跟我们谈谈这个吧？[迈克尔与投资人]Micheal,how are you guy?最近怎么样？Lawrence,i found something really interesting.。

劳伦斯，发现个好东西Great,whenever you find something interesting ,we all tend to make money.What stock are you valuing?。

真的吗？一说这句话，我就知道有钱赚在研究哪只股？No no no,no stocks,i want to short the housing market.不是股票这次我想沽空房市Really?but the housing market is rock solid.Tell them ill be there in a minute.I dont think you mean to do that,but sometimes you sound very dismiss and superior.Micheal,just take a beat,well talk about this later,okay?。

是吗？不过房市现在坚若磐石啊，又不会崩盘呃我马上就来我我不知道你是不是故意的，但有些时候你真的很夜郎自大迈克尔，慢慢来晚点谈，好不好？Lawrence,please,dont patronize me.。

劳伦斯，别把我当小孩好吗“Does it make you feel bored .Or stupid?well,it supposed to.Wall Streets loves to use cofusing terms to make you think only then can do what they do,or even better,for you to just leave the fuck alone.”。

你是不是一头雾水？或者觉得很无聊？这很正常华尔街就是喜欢使用一些高深术语让你以为他们很在行，甚至，干脆就让你完全不想管这档破事[马克抱怨]“I dont want that kind of business,money is not money,thats bad money.Let me asked this,what company treats it customers that shittily and succeed?fine,okay,goldman,youre right,”。

我宁愿不做他的生意，这种钱是不义之财你说，有哪家公司对客户这个鬼样还能挣钱？好你赢了，高盛，是Mark Baum had built his career on never assuming anyone or any company was legit wihout proving it.When he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud in Yeshiva，Whatever.But one day his rabbi told his mom why.。

从业以来，马克鲍恩从不相信任何人或一个公司的清白从小他就很爱研读犹太法典之类的东西,直到有一天他的导师找到他妈说明原因“Paul is a fine boy,and Mark is a excellent student of the Torah and the Talmud.”。

保罗很乖，马克，把教律和法典学得很好“Then whats the problem ,rabbi?"那有什么问题吗？“Its the reason that Mark is tudying so hard.He is looking for inconsistencies in the word of God！"。

他学得认真，是因为他一心要找出上帝话语里的矛盾！“So has he found any?"...所以他找到了吗?they called,you did it again..治疗师打电话来，说你又迟到了。

There was no cabs,what was i supposed to do ?At least i went.打不到出租，我能怎么办？至少我去了Youre running around like you have to right every wrong in the world.youre so angry.。

你总是想矫正世界上的所有不公正，你总是这样愤世嫉俗Fine,you know what,im a mena guy and im pissed off.是啊是啊，我就是个刻薄的愤青You had no idea the kind of crap poeople are pulling.And everyones walking around like theyre in a golddamn Enya video.Theyre all getting screw,you know.。

你根本不知道那些人渣在搞什么，然后这些街上的人，每个人一副与世无争的样子他们完全不知道自己正被蒙在鼓里You know what they are care about?They care about the ballgame.Or they care about what actress just went into the rehab.。

他们关心什么呢？球赛要么他们就关注哪个女明星进康复中心I think you should try medication.你该吃药了No no we agreed.if it interfered with work.。

不，我们说好的这个会影响工作You hate Wall Street,maybe its time to quit.You are miserable.你那么讨厌华尔街，也许是时候辞职了你那么痛苦Mark,i am sad everyday about what happened.i know you must feel the same,but you never show it .i know how close you were to your brother.Everyday i think youre gonna talk about that,but you never do.will you at least think about the idea of making a change？

马克，那件事让我每一天都很痛苦我知道你一定跟我有一样的感觉，但你从来没表现出来我知道你跟你哥哥感情有多好每天，每天我都在等你提起这件事，但你就是不说你有没有想过哪怕做一个改变？Fine,fine,honey,you know what?i will consider it.But honestly,im okay,i really am.。

好，好，好我答应你但老婆，我真的没事[华尔街谈保险]This is Wall Street,if you offer us free money,we are going to take it.My one concern is that when the bonds fail，i want to be certain of payment in case of solvency issues with your bank。

这是华尔街，有钱赚不拿白不拿我只关心债券违约时你们银行的偿付能力I’m sorry,are you for real?you want to bet against the housing market,and youre worried we wont pay you.。

抱歉...你是认真的吗？你要跟房市对赌，还怕我们赖账？Yes,thats correct.恩Unless the market crashes.The market on housings never gonna crash.Because its solid right now.I mean,who doesnt pay the mortgages?。

除非房市崩盘而房市绝对不会崩，现在还很健全谁不会买房贷呢？Well be in touch,send some paperwork over.我们到时会联络你并递交一些文件I like these cups,can i take one for my son?。

我喜欢这杯子，能拿一个给我儿子吗？Have...yes,yes.have two.当然两个都拿走[导师质疑迈克尔]How much in total?总额有多少？$1.3billion.13亿美元What?thats pretty much all of Scions liquidity.Micheal,thats highly distressing.

什么！这相当于公司所有现金迈克，玩过了Lawrence,thats not all of our liquidity.And im not certain that you really understand this trade.。

劳伦斯，这不是我们公司全部的现有资产，而且我也不知道你到底是否了解这项交易This is a certainty.稳赚不赔Micheal,i consider myself a mentor to you.but our company is not comfortable with this investment,am i being clear?。

迈克，我一向以你的导师自居,但我们公司不喜欢这项投资，听清楚了吗？Lawrence,i have full autonomy when it comes to investment strategy.you can read our agreement.

我完全可以独立决定投资策略你去看我们的合同吧Do not throw our inception agreement in my face,Micheal.we had underlying understanding you wouldnt act like a goddamn crazy man.。

别拿合同搪塞我，合同生效的前提是你不会像个疯子一样行事This is not crazy,its all very logical.我没有疯，一切都有理有据we lose millions until something that is never happened before happens?。

我们要陪几百万来等一件前所未有的事发生吗？

[马克团队接错电话]“Mark refued to kiss the ring of people with checkbooks so he had to set us his fund under Morgan Stanlys umbrella.his small team reflected his distrust of the system.”

马克不愿意巴结潜在的投资人，只好在摩根士丹利旗下成立自己的基金他的小团队反映出他对体制的不信任You guys are sick,you sick.你们这群人疯了，疯了She says this job is making me unhappy.。

她说工作让我不开心But you are happy when youre unhappy.你不就喜欢不开心么That was a weird call.打错电话了You take longer with a wrong number than anybody else.。

你跟一个打错电话的人还能聊那么久...He was talking about shorting housing bonds.And in the middle of the call he reliazed he had the wrong FrontPoint.

他提到沽空房贷债券，讲到一半发现他打错了That happens like five times a day that somebody get the wrong FrontPoint，we should change our name.。

每天差不多有五个人能打错电话到这，我们该改名了“Thats right,these lucky son of bitches caught wind of the one of the best trade in Wall Street history from a wrong number,they should have paid 10% to my fuckstick assistant.”。

恩，这些走狗屎运的人因为一次打错的电话便无意中听到了华尔街史上最棒的一次交易他们真应该给我的蠢助理分点红[马克团队与委内特洽谈]So how many people have you talked to about this trade.。

所以你跟多少个人谈过这交易？A few,thats definitely some intrest.Alright,a few people have invested us in just to laugh at me on this deal.is that you?Is that you ?is that what this is?

一些这绝对有市场好所以你们把我邀请过来就是为了嘲笑这项交易是吗？是你吗？你也是吗？thats not what this is.thats just how Mark is.Lets see what you got.。

没有，我们没有笑你马克这人就是这样的说说你的企划把Look at him,thats my quant.your what?You notice anything different about him?look at his face.。

你们看，我的计量分析师你没发现他长得跟我们有点不一样吗？Thats pretty racist.你这种族歧视啊Look at his eyes,ill get you a hints.Hes name is Yang,he won a math competition in China,he doesnt even speak English!Yeah im sure of the math。

你看着他的眼睛，我给你点提示他叫杨，是中国数学大赛的冠军，他甚至连英文都不会说我对这次交易的数字很有信心Actually my name is Jiang and i do speak English,Jared likes to say i dont because he thinks it makes me more authentic.And i got second in the national math competition.。

其实我姓江，而且我会说英语贾瑞德只是觉得他这样说会让我显得更具有说服力而且我只在全国大赛中拿了亚军I work for the bank,i dont think like a bank.Big bank small bank,id like to make money,all right?。

我是为银行工作，但是我却不受制于银行大银行小银行，能让我挣钱就是好银行Let me put in this way,im standing in front of a burning house,and i offered you fire insurance on it.。

这样跟你们说吧，我现在正在隔岸观火，还卖给你们火灾保险。

[名厨解释CDO]Heres word famous chef to explain.有请世界名厨来解释一下Okay ,Im a chef on Sunday afternoon setting the menu at a big restaurant.I ordered my fish on Friday which is the mortgage bond that Micheal shorted.But some of the fresh fish doesnt sell,i dont know why,mabye it just came out haibut has the intelligence of a dolphin.So what am i going to do?Throw all the this unsold fish,which is the BBB level of the bond in the garbage and take the loss?No way.Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that i am,whatever crappy levels of the bond i dont sell,i throw it into seafood stew.See,its not old fish,its whold new thing.And the best part is theyre eating 3-day-old halibut.that,is CDO.。

好我现在正在周末的餐厅里开菜单周五的时候我订了一批鱼，这就像迈克尔要沽空的房产抵押债券不过大家听信新闻说比目鱼有海豚的智商，所以其他鱼就卖不出去，这就像BBB房贷所以我能怎么办，把卖不掉的鱼扔掉认赔了事？开什么玩笑，我可是精明又节省的主厨。

这些卖不掉的债券，我全部拿来炖海鲜汤然后它们就再不是卖不掉的鱼了，这变成一道全新的菜最棒的是，我们在给客人吃三天前的东西这就是担保债券凭证[贾瑞德兜售房贷保险]Fuckin A,Jered.讲的真好，贾瑞德。

Shut your fucking mouth.闭嘴This guy walks into my office and says,those same bankers got greedy,they lost track of the market.。

这个家伙走进我的办公室跟我说，那些银行家太贪婪了，以致于看不清市场And i can profit off thier stuipidity?我正可以靠着他们的愚蠢获利Fuck,yeah,i want him to be right.。

爽啦我真希望他猜对了How come you dont hate this guy?Hes everything you taught us not to trust.你为什么不讨厌他？他就是你说过我们最要防范的那种人。

I cant hate him,hes so transparent in his self-interest that i kind of respect him.我怎么讨厌他？他敢于跟我们共享自己的利益，我还有点敬佩他。

Look,its two very simple questions.is there a housing bubble?And if there is,how exposed are the banks?

现在就两个很简单的问题房市会有泡沫吗？如果有，银行的风险有多大？Lets get on this quickly too,because if hes right,every loser with a couple million bucks and a fund is gonna be jumping on this.。

我们赶紧研究一下这个如果他猜对了，大家只要有点钱就能买[查理杰米客厅面试]Its just a meeting though,you know?people have meeting all the time.。

只是见个面，对不对谁都要开会的Chris,im on Teds desk.我叫克里斯，泰德的助理Were so excited to get set up on you trading platform.。

我们很期待能用你们公司的交易平台Cool.hear,have a seat a second,棒极了来坐So I...Ted had asked me to do some meeting prep,but i cannot find any marketing materials on your guys.Could we see some of your offering documents?Can you tell us how much you manage?。

泰德要我准备你们的资料，不过我完全找不到你们的营销数据我可以看你们的担保文件吗？请问现在你们在管理多少钱？Of course,were doing $30 million right now.But we started four years ago with $110,000.So as you can see,this is pretty phenomenal returns.。

当然目前有三千万但我们起步的时候只有11万所以这真是非常可观的报酬率Thats really cool.But you guys are under the capital requirments for an ISDA.。

你们很棒不过你们的资本根本没有达到我们的门坎By how much?还差多少？By one billion four hundred seventy million,so...a lot还差14亿七千万。

所以还差...很多This makes me look bad,doesnt it,that we didnt know what the capital requirments were?我们连资金入门门坎都不知道就来找你，是不是很不专业？

Its not great.But...keep up those returns and give us a call way down the line.You know.Okay?have a good one guys.

确实有点不过...等你们到了门坎欢迎再来找我们就这样好吗？好运Shit! who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon?......Im young yet,i can still do something with my life.。

操！哪个傻逼会把会议定在下午四点五十！我还年轻，可以做点其他的事Gentlemen,i need you to leave.先生，你们该离开了Yep,yep,were going,lets go.好好，我们就走了。

Look at this look at this,this guy,says that the housing markets a giant market.This is crazy,this is crazy stuff.And the whole housing market is about to collapse?

你看这里，看这，这个人说美国房市是个大泡沫靠这太扯了他说整个房市都会崩盘？“For Jamie and Charlie,the housing market doomsday prediction was musci to thier ears.They had started working out of Jamies garage.with $110,000 Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the East Cost."。

对于房市末日的预言正和杰米查理的心意他们原先只是在杰米的车库创业，靠着杰米在东岸运帆船存的11万Our investment strategy is simple.People hate to think of bad things happening，so they always understimate thier likelihood。

我们的投资策略很简单，人们不愿意接受坏事，所以总是低估它们发生的可能性What he said,我同意。

“They strategy was simple and brilliant.Jamie and Charlie founds markets will sell options very cheaply on thing they will think will never happen.So when they were wrong,they were wrong small.But when they were right,they were right big.Within a few years they had turned $110,000 into $30million.But then it was time to go to New York city,so far,it wasnt going very well.

他们的投资策略很讨巧这两人发现只要大家都相信楼市不会崩盘，期权就会卖得很便宜这样他们要赔也不会赔得很多，赚的话却能盆满钵满没几年11万就这样滚到3千万是时候向纽约进军了，不过目前为止，他们似乎并不很顺利。

[本出场]Ben Rickert was a former trader in singapore for Chase who quit the whole game in disgust.He just happened to be Jamies neighbour when they were in Colorado and they met walking dogs.But Ben was dark,he didnt think the whole system would fail,he thought the whold world was going down

本.瑞克特原为摩根在新加坡的交易员，后来因为觉得交易龌龊而辞职他是杰米在科罗拉多的邻居，两人因为遛狗认识但是本天性悲观，他觉得对这种体制的改变无能无力，而整个世界都将走向毁灭“Every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden.you guys should start your own garden.Seeds are gonna be the new currency.”。

你们吃的蔬菜都是我自己种的你们也应该自己种点种子在未来会成为货币Ben had real experience in a big bank,Jamie and Charlie had never been in the Manhatten bank bathroom.。

本在大银行里工作了很多年，而杰米查理连那些银行的厕所都没去过But ben was done with the banking world.He was very clear.不过本早已退出江湖他会实话实说。

[探访房屋现状]Oh god,i hate this.its a total waste of time.好烦，完全是在浪费时间Oh come on,would you relax?别这样，放松点Theres a housing development 45 minutes outside town.Mark want us to check that out first.

距城外45分钟路程的地方有住宅开发，马克想我们先去看看Well I hope therere some Cuban restaurants on the way there.Because i heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami.。

唉，真希望路上能有古巴餐厅因为听说迈阿密的古巴料理很棒Please dont be chipper in the face of me being miserable.It really makes me hate you.。

我很惨的时候别在我面前爽我真的会恨死你How is wanting to eat good food being chipper？想吃好的还有错了？Hello？Who do these go for?$425,000 each?。

有人在吗？这些房子要卖给谁？每间42万？What do you want?干嘛？I’m lookin for Harvey.你好，我想找哈瑞You want my landlords dog?你要找我房东的狗？。

...You landlord filled up his mortgage application using his dogs name?你房东用狗的名字申请房贷？I guess so.Wait,has that asshole not being pay his mortgage?Cause ive been paying my rent.

估计是慢着，那吊毛没付房贷吗？我可一直都按时交房租啊Well,yeah,he is over 90 days deadlinquent.是，他已经超过90天没缴房贷了Seriously,man,am I gonna have to leave?‘Cause my kid just get settled in school,man .。

说真的，该不会让我搬走吧？我的小孩才刚转到这个学校来You should talk to your landlord about that,im sorry,i dont have any more information.You have a great day.。

你应该找你的房东谈谈，抱歉情况我也掌握得不多祝你好运Seriously man,is everything gonna be okay?Its not my fault,dude,ive been paying...。

说真的，真的不会有事吗？不是我的错，我明明都有按时付[马克组暗访]Yeah,bithc better like me，send her ass to Cabo.那女人很喜欢我，我让她业绩好到去度假How many loans do you write each month?。

你每个月办理几件贷款？About 60.60件左右What was it four years ago?四年前呢？10...maybe 15.I was a bartendr.Now i own boat.。

10到15起吧我以前只是个酒保，现在我自己拥有一艘船So do applicants ever get rejected?有人申请然后遭到驳回吗？Seriously?Look,if they get rejected,i suck at my job.。

你开玩笑吧我要是驳回他们我吃什么Even if they had no money?就算他们没钱也可以申请？I just leave the income section blank if I want.Corporate doesnt care.These people just want homes,and they go with the flow.。

我在收入那栏留白就好了，上面也不会管这些人想要房子，一切跟着感觉走就行Not our fault,simply the way the world works.不是我们的错世界就是这样子Your companies dont verify?Could you hold on a second?。

你们公司不会确认一遍申请数据吗？...失陪一下I dont get it.why are they confessing?我不懂他们干嘛不打自招？Theyre not confessing.Theyre bragging.。

才不是呢他们在吹牛逼Its time to call bullshit.该反制这些欺诈行为了Bullshit on what?反制什么？Every fucking thing.整个金融体制[委内特]Are you done?

骂够没有？God,i pull a muscle in my back from yelling.操，骂人骂得我后背肌肉都拉伤了Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up ，yet you quote us at a higher price on the bonds.Please explain that to me,theres no way that makes sense.Why shouldnt we back out of this trade right now?。

房贷债券竟然只升不降，你还在这跟我们狮子大开口麻烦解释一下，太没天理了为什么我们不能现在退出？Didnt I say that the big banks were clueless?didnt i say that?Now thier foots on fire,they think thier steak is done,and youre surprised?。

我难道没跟你们说过那些大银行根本搞不清楚状况吗？现在他们火烧眉毛，还以为自己的牛排快煎好了然后你们就沉不住气了？Thats not stupidity,thats fraud.这不是愚蠢他们是在骗人Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal,and ill have my wifes brother arrested.

愚蠢跟违法有区别？那我现在就叫警察把我小舅子给抓起来I guess you just dont reliaze how clueless the whole system really is.你根本就不知道整个体制有多傻逼。

Yes,theres some shady shit going down，but trust me,its fueled by stupidity!是，确实是有一些不法勾当但你信我，违法全部都是源于无知。

[拉斯维加斯论坛]Ladies and getlemen.Bussiness is good. Profits are strong ，and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is buit.

房贷市场前景光明，利润回报丰厚房贷仍然是美国的经济支柱And yes,we had to take some losses in our subprime department last year,but those losses will be contained at only 5%.。

的确我们次贷部门去年有一定损失，但只有5%I have a question,please.我有个问题Sir,the Q&A is after my statements.but you know what,you seem anxious,how can l help you ?。

先生，我说完就会开放提问但是您看起来很着急有什么能帮到你的吗？Would you say that it is a possibility or a probability that subprime losses stop at 5%?Thank you.。

你觉得次贷损失真的不会超过5%吗？I would say it is a very strong probability,indeed.非常有可能Zero!Zero! theres a 0% chance that your subprime losses will stop at 5%.。

不可能，完全不可能你们的次贷损失绝对不可能维持在5%Our subprime department is fine,我们的次贷部门很健全[前女友爆黑幕]Just hold on,okay?my brothers ex-girlfriend works for the SEC.She just told me shes in town,okay?So if we are missing something ,maybe she can tell me .you know,give me some insight.。

别急，先听我说我哥前女友在证券交易所工作，她跟我说她会来这里所以如果我们有什么疏忽的地方，她会告诉我的，给我们点意见In the meantime,you go to the main floor and price some swaps.。

这个时间，你就去主楼层谈信用违约互换的价格Well,autually,were about to invest in housing bonds,and i was wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all.I know youre not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.。

我们现在想投资房贷债券，我想问你们交易所会不会担心这个交易债券I know youre not allowed to tell me specifics,but just generally.我知道你不方便透露太多，但说个大概就行。

Im not here for SEC,im here my own dime.我不是代表证券交易来的我自费过来的I’m floating my resume to some big banks我最近在给各大银行投简历。

How are you floating your resume to big banks?I mean,youre supposed to be the ones,you know,policing the big banks.

你怎么会送履历给他们？你不应该是监督他们的人吗？Grow up,Jamie.成熟点，杰米Therere must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution right after youve been working in financial regulation,right?。

你既然在金融管制机构工作，肯定会有法律限制你去金融机构工作的啊。No,no.完全没有。

[迈克尔压力山大]Lewis,can you come in early tomorrow,please?路易斯，明天你能早点来么？Dr.burry,if the investors withdraw,whats going to happen here?Are we done?

布朗医生，如果那些投资人撤资，我们怎么办？我们就完了吗？Honestly,I dont know.我还真不知道The bonds arent going down,they wont move.its possible that were in a completely fraudulent system.。

房贷债券没有跌，它们稳如泰山也许我们根本就身处一个信用评级造假的世界！Or...youre wrong.也可能是你估计错误...Sure,its possible im wrong.i just dont know how.I guess when someones wrong,they never...They never know how.。

是可能是我错了我只是想不通，怎么可能？呵呵，可能每个犯错的人都想不通自己哪里错了吧[本发飙]Dont do that.Stop,stop.Stop it ,stop.别跳了别跳了What?怎么了？Do you have any idea what you just did?

你知道你们刚刚做了什么吗？Come on,were just made the deal of our lifetimes,we should celebrate怎么啦？我们刚刚做完一项千载难逢的交易，庆祝一下嘛。

You just bet against the American economy.Which means if were right,people lose homes,people lose jobs.people lose retirement saving.people lose pensions.

你们在跟整个美国经济对赌如果我们真的赢了，就意味着人民会失去房子、工作、存款和退休金You know what i hate about fucking banking?你知道我最恶心银行业哪一点么？It reduced people to numbers.Heres a number,every 1% unemployment goes up,40,000 people die.Did you know that?

最恶心银行只把人简化成数字这就是数字：失业率每上升1个百分点，4万人就会死懂么？Just dont fucking dance.别他妈跳了Whoa,i just got really scared.天呐，我突然觉得好恐怖。

[逼急迈克尔]As you may know,our agreement allows me to take extraodinary measures when markets arent functioning properly.

我们曾达成共识：我们的合约允许我采取非常手段，来对付脱轨的市场I currently have reasons to believe the mortgage bond market is fraudulent.。

我目前有理由相信房贷债券市场，正遭到有心操弄So in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market,i decided to restrict investors withdrawals.。

所以为了保护我的投资人免受其害，我决定禁止投资人赎回资金，Until further notice.除非我发布通知Sincerely,Dr.Micheal J.Burry.迈克尔布朗医生敬上“Im suing."。

我要提出起诉“Everyone,deep in thier heart,is waiting for the end of the world to come.“每个人的内心深处，其实都在期待世界末日“Will you listen to me ?This is like the end of capitalism.This is like the Dark Ages all over gain.

你听我说啊？这是资本主义的终结。我们又要回到黑暗时代。[华尔街日报冷门羹]

What am i supposed to do ?you want me to write a piece called"Were All Fucked “？你们想我怎么做？写篇文章标题叫“我们死定了”？

Yes,thats a perfect tittle!This level of criminality is unprecedented,even on fucking Wall Street.多好的标题。

这是华尔街前所未有的犯罪规模Jamie....and this is me being honest here,okay?杰米，我就直话直说了吧It took my years to buid my relationship on Wall Street.No bank or ratings agency is going to confirm the story like this,just because it comes from two guys in a ...sorry,garage .。

我花了很多年才跟华尔街打好关系没有银行或信用机构会证实这则消息来源的真实性，尤其这种消息出自两个住在车库里的人I thought you were for real,you know,ill have to say i really did.。

妈的我一直以为你很正派真的Yeah you try being for real for a three-year-old ,and a wife getting her masters degree.。

我也想正派但我有三岁小孩要养，老婆还在念硕士I’m not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch.我不想因为你们的直觉就断送名声Thanks for coming ,guys.。

很高兴见到你们[马克陈情]Now anyone who knows me knows that i have no problem telling theyre wrong.认识我的人都知道，我总是勇于指出别人的错误。

We live in a era of fraud in America.美国正处于欺诈的时代Not just in banking ,but in government,education,religion,food,even baseball.

不止银行在欺骗大众，政府，教育，宗教，食物，甚至棒球界都在骗What bothers me isnt that fraud is not nice or fraud is mean.困扰我的并不是欺骗本身的不道德和恶毒，。

Its that for 15,000 years fraud and short-sighted thinking had never,ever worked.Not once.而是持续了一万五千年的欺骗和短视，这根本就行不通的。

Eventually,people got,caught,things go south.迟早我们会东窗事发，锒铛入狱When the hell did we forget all that?我们什么时候才能吸取教训？。

I thought we were better than this,i really did.我想我们人类还能有点良知真的And the fact that were not doesnt make me feel all right or superior.It makes me fee...Sad,。

事实上我们并没有我没有因此觉得自己多高尚而与众不同我只觉得...很悲哀I just know at the end of the day,average people are going to be the ones that are gonna have to pay for all this.Because they always,always do.。

我只知道，到头来，收拾烂摊子的只会是普通老百姓每次都是这样Thats my two cents.thanks you.以上谢谢[迈克尔难过自己关]I met my wife on Match.com.My profile said,"I am a medical student with only one eye,an awkward social manner,and $145,000 in student loans,she wrote back,"youre just what ive been looking for."She meant honest.So let me be honest.。

我在一个配对网站认识了我太太当时我的档案里写的是：“我是一个单眼的医学生，行为怪异，还背着14万的助学贷款她回信说：”你就是我要找的人”我知道她的意思是我很坦诚所以现在我依然要对你们坦诚Making money is not like i thought it would be .this buisness kills the part of life that is essential,the part that had nothing to do with business.。

我对赚钱的看法有点改观了这个产业扼杀了老百姓的基本生活，包括那些原本跟金融业毫无瓜葛的东西For the past few years,my insides,have felt like theyre eating themselves.All the people I respected wont talk to me anymore,except through lawyers.。

两年来我的内心一直备受煎熬我尊敬的那些人再也不理我了，除非通过律师找我People...want authority to tell them how to value things but they choose these authority not based on facts or results.They choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar.And im not and never have been"familiar".。

人们依靠权威机构来评等，但他们不是不用事实或结果去评估它们，只盲从于权威或习惯而我从来不是一个让人觉得亲切和习惯的人So...so ive come to the sullen reliazation that i must close down the fund.。

所以我总算痛苦地领悟到，是时候停止这个对冲基金了。[结束]

“I have a feeling that in a few years people are gonna be doing what they always do when the economy tanks.“

我有预感没过几年，人们又会重复经济崩盘时做的事情”They will be blamming immigrants and poor people."然后嫁祸于新移民和穷人身上But Mark was wrong,in the few years that followed,hundreds of bankers and rating agencies executives go to jail.The SEC was completely overhauled .And the Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks.。

马克估计错了随后的几年，无数的银行家和信评机构人员去坐牢，国会被迫拆分大银行Just kidding.开玩笑的The bank took the money the American people gave them and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses，And lobby Congress to kill big reform.And then they blamed immigrants and poor people.。

银行继续拿着人们的钱，付给自己高额红利，并游说国会取消改革随后把矛头指向移民和穷人And this time,even teacher.甚至教师“You knwo once we sell,well be just like the rest of them.You know that.。

你知道，一旦我们现在卖了，我们就跟那些人一样了““No,were not,were not the bad guys here."没有，我们没跟他们一样"We didnt defraud the American people and prey on thier dreams of owning a home.All right?“。

我们并没有欺诈老百姓，也没有利用他们的买房梦对不对？“They did.Now we get to kick them in the teeth."他们有所以现在我们要让他们打落牙齿和血吞“i means,its now or never,Mark."。

再不行动就太迟了。“Okay.Sell it all.“好吧。卖空它。-END-上期回顾